Will Ferrari’s Friday pace equal a strong F1 Azerbaijan GP? Lap time analysis

After going through Friday data from Baku, it appears the grid could be shaken up this weekend. Lewis Hamilton set the fastest time in the afternoon for Ferrari, while teammate Charles Leclerc was less than a tenth of a second behind. 

Championship favourites McLaren, on the other hand, were hardly visible: Lando Norris was already nine tenths down on his best lap, but he had to abandon his fastest attempt after a brush with the wall left him with suspension damage. Oscar Piastri also struggled, and clipped the wall himself. As a result, both the McLaren drivers’ true qualifying pace remained hidden.

The picture was clearer in long runs with heavy fuel. Adjusted for different tire compounds and stint lengths, Piastri lost over six tenths per lap on average compared to Leclerc.

A familiar pattern from Monza repeated itself: Ferrari shone with top-end speed, while McLaren excelled in the corners. On the main straight, McLaren gave away around 4 km/h to the Scuderia. On Friday, Ferrari not only outpaced McLaren but also Red Bull and Mercedes in terms of top speed.

”We can report the total absence of graining across all three compounds” -Pirelli

Is Red Bull’s race pace on target?

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Alexander Nemenov / AFP via Getty Images

Leclerc’s closest challenger in race trim was not Hamilton, but Max Verstappen. The world champion was only 0.22 seconds slower per lap on average than the Ferrari driver. Hamilton lost 0.24 seconds per lap.

That meant Red Bull looked much stronger over the long run than on a single lap, where Verstappen finished only sixth—six tenths down. Still, the RB21 was noticeably lacking in top speed compared to the Scuderia.

Behind Hamilton came Piastri (+0.62) as the next top runner, followed by Yuki Tsunoda (+0.77) in the second Red Bull. Behind them were the two Mercedes: George Russell (+0.82) and Andrea Kimi Antonelli (+0.88). While the Silver Arrows were closer to Ferrari on a single tour, they lost significantly more over multiple laps.

Williams also surprise on long runs

Alexander Albon, Williams

Photo by: Ozan Kose / AFP via Getty Images

While Haas driver Oliver Bearman was the best midfield driver on a single lap, it was Williams who once again caused a stir among midfield cars. Adjusted for tires, Alexander Albon and Carlos Sainz lost only 0.47 and 0.61 seconds to Leclerc respectively—making them even faster than McLaren.

But Williams’ weakness remains qualifying. In Monza, the team disappointed with an early Q2 exit despite strong practice performances. The tight midfield in Baku could once again make life difficult, but Sunday still promises a solid haul of points.

Elsewhere in the midfield, familiar trends held: Sauber once again impressed with solid race pace (+0.92), while Racing Bulls looked stronger over a single lap. Liam Lawson was the quicker RB driver in the long run, but still more than a second adrift. Aston Martin, by contrast, disappointed across the board, both on a single lap and in long runs (+1.91).

Pirelli brought softer ‘C6’ tires for Baku

Pierre Gasly, Alpine

Photo by: Simon Galloway / LAT Images via Getty Images

Pirelli’s softer tire allocation for teams, as used in Imola, Monaco and Montreal, introduces several unknowns. Baku has traditionally been known for low tire wear and straightforward one-stop strategies, but that could change this year. Last year, the then-medium tire (now C4) lasted no more than 20 laps, on a race distance of 51 laps.

However, Friday’s long runs showed that many drivers managed their tires better this time around. A one-stop strategy therefore remains realistic. According to Pirelli chief engineer Simone Berra, the fact drivers have already been lapping quicker in 2025 than 2024 is partly down to preparations.

“It’s worth noting that track conditions are clearly an improvement on past years, a sign of how hard the organisers have worked over the past few days, treating the track surface with high-pressure water jets,” says Berra. “This, along with lower temperatures, explains the significantly faster lap times compared to 2024 – they’ve already reached last year’s pole time.”

Expect tire choice to be a hot topic during qualifying, with the medium (C5) compound potentially strongest: “The C5 probably provides more stability in the twistier parts of the track, so that it might be the preferred compound for the key part of qualifying,” said Berra. “Finally, we can report the total absence of graining across all three compounds.”

With Ferrari and Red Bull teams looking strong and McLaren set to recover from a difficult Friday, everything is left to play for in Saturday qualifying and during the Azerbaijan GP on Sunday.