Luck is keeping Lando Norris in championship contention, says Jolyon Palmer

Former Formula 1 driver Jolyon Palmer believes that luck has been a factor in how close Lando Norris currently sits behind his McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri in the drivers' standings. 

Just nine points separate the two drivers as they return for the second half of the season. With just 10 races left, the battle for the championship is heating up. But Palmer argues that the gap could be larger if it were not for fortune being on Norris's side.

Speaking on the F1 Nation podcast as the summer break came to an end, Palmer discussed his thoughts on the matter.

"I've not switched off over the summer break this year," he told Tom Clarkson. "I've been just poring through data and numbers. I'm not in my racing driver era now. I'm going to be washed by the time we get to Qatar. I'm going to have no energy. I didn't recharge the batteries.

"But what I've been thinking is Piastri's been the better driver. And we're talking about the fine margins: nine points, Lando winning three of the last four.

"But on pretty much all stats and viewing, Piastri has been the better driver so far. And I looked through and I think that championship lead is nine points - could easily be 61 points but for largely a bit of luck."

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Photo by: Simon Galloway / LAT Images via Getty Images

Palmer identified a number of moments that swung in Norris's favour, beginning with the first grand prix of the 2025 season: Australia.

"So I'm thinking there's 16 points lost in Melbourne. Both McLarens go skittling off through the gravel. Oscar's is slightly more than Lando's, but really these, you know, you can't judge this. And it cost Oscar on the day 16 points."

The British Grand Prix saw the Australian hit with a 10-second penalty for erratic braking behind the safety car.

"I'm thinking Silverstone: tough decision that I've not seen penalised since or before and it cost Oscar the win.

"Imola, the timing of the safety car: really tough decision and it's just a bit of bad luck. It cost him at the time only six points in terms of a swing. And then you've got Budapest. A great win for Lando. Absorbed the pressure, did what he had to do, but he did it because he had a bad start, was in the wrong position, and then sort of got into the right strategy that Oscar wasn't given."

The championship leader leads Norris 284 to 275 points after 14 races with six wins to Norris's five. Despite this, Palmer believes Piastri has outraced him to a degree that is not reflected in the current standings.

"When you look at all those points lost, even the two points in the Miami sprint, whereas safety car timing cost Oscar the win and gave it to Lando, there's been a lot of things that have just gone towards Lando in these first 14 races.

"Oscar's overall outqualified him by a slender margin and I think he's outraced him and the gap could be so much more comfortable, but as it is, it's nine and it's absolutely on for anyone."