Analysis

Strategy Corner: How can Max Verstappen beat Oscar Piastri to Saudi F1 win?

Here's what to expect from Formula 1's Saudi Arabian Grand Prix as Max Verstappen aims to defeat fellow front row starter Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris is set for another comeback race.

Jeddah's fast and furious street race is shaping up to be an enthralling contest, thanks to several cars which are starting out of position.

At the front there is Red Bull's pole sitter Max Verstappen, who will be desperately fighting off the faster McLaren of Oscar Piastri. Then there is Lando Norris - starting 10th after his Q3 crash - who is behind the likes of Williams' Carlos Sainz, struggling Ferrari man Lewis Hamilton and Yuki Tsunoda.

If this had been Suzuka, there would have been concern that the order wouldn't dramatically change due to the lack of overtaking options, while Bahrain was a more open race with high tyre wear and two pitstops.

The race on Jeddah's Corniche circuit will fall somewhere in the middle. Yes, dirty air and traffic will be an issue and the race is expected to be a one-stopper, but Pirelli's softer tyre choices and three fairly powerful DRS zones should help spice up the action.

Can Max Verstappen do anything to defeat Oscar Piastri?

Speaking after another blistering pole position in a car that doesn't deserve to be up there, Verstappen was less convinced he could repeat his Suzuka heroics in Saudi Arabia.

Against McLaren's superior management of the rear tyres, which again will be the limiting factor this weekend, Red Bull's race pace looked poor. But the difference isn't as massive as Friday's skewed data suggests, when Verstappen was trialling experimental set-ups to learn more about Red Bull's handling issues and Tsunoda's crash interrupted long runs in FP2.

"The car definitely took a bit of a step forward compared to Friday, so I hope that will help our tyre life out as well," the Dutchman said. "I don’t think it’ll be enough to be super competitive, especially on the medium. I don’t know on the hard, I haven’t touched it. In the race, you stabilise with a high temperature, and that’s where in general most teams are struggling more."

Tyres race sets

Photo by: Pirelli

If this had been a hot daytime race, it would not have been a contest and Piastri would have disappeared into the distance. But the Australian was still feeling good about his chances to get past Verstappen. "I'm feeling confident in what we've got. There are a lot of DRS zones around here, which is a nice difference to Suzuka. So, let's see if we can make some progress," he said.

As Verstappen says, the unused hard tyre holds the key. In Jeddah, that tyre is Pirelli's C3 compound, which happened to be its soft tyre in Bahrain. According to Pirelli's motorsport chief Mario Isola, a one-stop using hards and mediums is comfortably the best strategy.

"With the C3, C4 and C5 that we have chosen this year, clearly you have a bit more management compared to last year, but the one-stop is still the quickest on paper with medium and hard," he said. "Our medium is very close in performance but it is degrading more."

How far can Lando Norris go from 10th?

While Piastri mainly has to worry about passing Verstappen, although Mercedes' George Russell could also be a threat, Norris is starting in the middle of the pack, right in the dirty air caused by the train of cars in front of him.

When asked what he would do if he was in McLaren's shoes, Isola kept both starting on hards and on mediums open, with either choice providing certain benefits. "If you start on the hard compound, you can bet on a safety car at a later stage of the race," he explained.

"You have that possibility because the hard is so close to the medium, so you're not taking the risk of losing many positions at the start. If there's no safety car, you still have the flexibility to play around with the moment of the pit stop.

Possible race strategies

Photo by: Pirelli

"Another element is traffic. If you start out of position, you want to get rid of traffic as fast as you can. In this case the hard tyre is not the right choice. So, if both McLarens are starting with the mediums I wouldn't really be surprised.”

Out of the front-runners only Norris has a fresh set of softs available, but according to Isola those are unlikely to come into play unless there is a late safety car.

"I'm not saying that the soft is completely out of the game, but if you have a run of 15 laps to the end of the race, it is much better to fit a set of hards," the Italian added.

"If you have five laps to go, it's a different story because clearly you have a five to six tenth advantage compared to the medium. It's not like the small delta between medium and hard. But the stint has to be short, not 12-15 laps."