Long-run analysis: Which GTP teams have the edge entering the Rolex 24?

After three practice sessions at the Rolex 24, the world looks very different at the start of the 2026 IMSA SportsCar Championship season than it did last weekend at the "Roar" pre-season test. There are new favorites in both the GTP and GTD Pro classes.

As with the Roar, we analyzed all times in the GTP class that were under 1:40 minutes and calculated the average. It should be noted that there have been no changes to the Balance of Performance (BoP) since the pre-test.

Take a look at the following individual results for the three free practice sessions:

The result of the third free practice session in particular should be treated with caution, as there were three interruptions with red flags.

Let's now look at all three sessions combined. If we take all laps under 1:40 minutes and calculate the average, we get the following order:

1. MSR-Acura #60 - 1:37.530 (43 laps under 1:40)

2. AXR-Cadillac #31 - 1:37.812 (70)

3. Penske-Porsche #6 - 1:37.838 (69)

4. Penske-Porsche #7 - 1:37.848 (76)

5. WTR-Cadillac #10 - 1:38.012 (68)

6. WTR-Cadillac #40 - 1:38.031 (60)

7. MSR-Acura #93 - 1:38.065 (53)

8. WRT-BMW #24 - 1:38.163 (49)

9. JDC-Miller-Porsche #85 - 1:38.214 (84)

10. WRT-BMW #25 - 1:38.261 (33)

11. Thor-Aston-Martin #23 - 1:38.613 (52)

The Meyer Shank Acura #60 (Blomqvist/Braun/Dixon/Allmendinger) is suddenly the fastest car in the field by a relatively clear margin. Does that suddenly make Acura the favorite?

Van der Zande: We are not the favorites

Renger van der Zande from the sister #93 Acura firmly denies the narrative that they are the favorites, telling Laurens Stade: "Honestly, not really. I think we have a very good car for qualifying. But I don't think we have the fastest car in the race, and that worries me. I think Cadillac and Porsche are in the best position. Hopefully I'm wrong."

The competition laughed at such statements. "They're the world champions at playing down their chances," said one individual from the Porsche camp. And Cadillac also has the Honda luxury brand on its radar. On the other hand, Acura's argument is supported by the fact that both ARX-06s have completed comparatively few laps under 1:40 minutes.

Speaking of Cadillac: the Action Express Cadillac #31 (Aitken/Bamber/Vesti/Zilisch) finished just ahead of the two factory Porsches on average. The two Cadillac V-Series.R cars from Wayne Taylor Racing follow behind, while the Meyer-Shank Acura #93 (van der Zande/Yelloly/Palou/Ohta) fielded by HRC is likely to have completed a different program than the #60.

BMW: Rescue in the final practice session?

There are worries at BMW. WRT's debut as a GTP team was marked by alarm for a long time. The car didn't make it into the window, the major aero update didn't seem to work properly, and the drivers were unhappy with the handling.

But in the very last practice session, a trick was pulled off that at least gives the WRT camp some hope. However, it is doubtful that this will be enough to close a gap of well over half a second.

WRT is still enjoying support from the WEC crew on the operational side at the IMSA opener. This is only logical given the winter break in the world championship. WRT team boss Vincent Vosse asks for a little patience in an interview with Motorsport-Total.com:

"If you compare us to the US teams, we are complete rookies. We are starting from scratch. Of course, we bring experience [from the WEC] with us and have some new recruits in the team who were already active in IMSA last year. But all of that has to come together and work. This is our first race, so please give us some time."

But how much patience will BMW have? In the fourth year of the LMDh program, success is a must. "The question is not how much time we need," Vosse interjects. "The question is: 'What do we need?' And that's a multitude of things that also have to be brought together." Vosse knows what he's talking about; after all, WRT is the benchmark in GT3 racing.

And Aston Martin? The situation has not improved since the pre-test. "Daytona is a very special track. We can't take much from Le Mans either, because that's a special track in its own right."

Improvements compared to the "Roar" - GTP

Let's take another look at the improvements compared to last week's pre-test.

1. MSR-Acura #60 - 1.004 seconds faster than at the "Roar"

2. AXR-Cadillac #31 - 0.850

3. MSR-Acura #93 - 0.558

4. WRT-BMW #25 - 0.461

5. WTR-Cadillac #40 - 0.446

6. WTR-Cadillac #10 - 0.441

7. Penske-Porsche #6 - 0.353

8. WRT-BMW #24 - 0.329

9. Thor-Aston Martin #23 - 0.317

10. JDC-Miller-Porsche #85 - 0.253

11. Penske-Porsche #7 - 0.247

On average, the GTP cars improved by around four tenths of a second. Aston Martin only managed a jump of 0.317 seconds on average across all lap times under 1:40 minutes.

The improvement was also minimal for Porsche. All three 963s are below the median improvement. The biggest jump was made by the #6 Penske-Porsche (L. Vanthoor/Estre/Campbell) with 0.353 seconds.

At Cadillac, Action Express Racing improved significantly more than the two V-Series.R entries from Wayne Taylor Racing. However, Acura made the biggest leap. There could be many reasons for this from improvements in the setup to sandbagging in the pre-season test, or several other factors.

New tires as an unknown factor

The race will be particularly exciting due to two factors that also interact with each other: the new Michelin tires and the weather.

The new generation of slicks with their spectacular appearance are said to impress above all with their improved warm-up behavior, but also bring improvements in terms of durability. Jack Aitken, who had put the #31 Cadillac on pole before being penalized, said when asked by Motorsport.com that the differences were not that great, at least in qualifying.

The weather forecast is spectacular with temperatures approaching 80 degrees Fahrenheit predicted for Sunday. Even for Florida, this is exceptionally high for January, and the race could be one of the warmest in history.

This means that the soft tires will only be used briefly during the night, if at all. Michelin has allowed a window from 5 p.m. to 10 a.m. for the use of soft tires, which is larger than in previous years. But the temperatures significantly narrow this window.

And this is where Acura's concern comes into play. Van der Zande: "We tend to put a little more strain on the tires than Porsche and Cadillac when accelerating out of hairpin turns. That makes it more difficult for us in longer stints." And high temperatures don't help either. But a yellow phase in the last hour might..."