Variables may be Honda’s best hope for Indy victory

While early practice form for the Indy 500 was once treated with a pinch of salt, the current condensing of practice into ‘just’ five days (plus one hour on Saturday morning) before qualifying begins has already ramped up the sense of urgency among teams and drivers when compared with previous eras.

The fact that Tuesday practice was rained out, and more rain is expected Friday has further heightened the need to get on with program in preparation for the 100^th running of the Indianapolis 500.

After Andretti Autosport took five of the top six times in yesterday’s opening practice, team manager Rob Edwards told Motorsport.com: “We ran a lot of laps and were pretty aggressive because we saw this weather coming and wanted to make sure we had a good baseline and lots of data to look at to plan the rest of the week.”

For those merely watching, that policy is going to make every session more meaningful, as teams need to learn their cars’ nuances in all types of track condition. There will be none of this loitering in the garage “because these aren’t the kind of conditions we’ll encounter on race day.” The fact is, the bizarre weather in the Indianapolis region this month has rendered long-term weather forecasts somewhat meaningless. Last Wednesday, the high was 81degF; for Saturday’s GP of Indy, the high was 47…

Many fans probably like the idea of having more variables in the mix for the 100^th running of the world’s greatest race and the teams feeling compelled to consider multiple eventualities outside their control. Perfectionist engineers, of course, will be tearing their hair out at the idea that however well prepared they are and however much time is spent working with their drivers on setting up the car, in fact it will be the ability to make adjustments on the fly that could decide the outcome.

Yet for some of the competitors, this is a beacon of hope. Honda drivers are certain the domed skids hurt the handling of their cars in traffic more than those of Chevy-powered cars, although there seemed little evidence of that yesterday, watching the Andretti cars running in a pack.

But even setting aside that thorny issue, those same drivers fear Chevrolet were always going to be at an advantage at IMS, due to the way Rule 9.3 was implemented last winter. IndyCar allowed HPD to catch back up with Chevrolet with its road/street course and short-oval kits, but decided there was not enough of a disparity between the manufacturers’ superspeedway kits.

“Are you ****ing kidding me?” exclaimed one engineer for a Honda-powered team. “That’s where we missed out most. Didn’t these guys watch the 500 last year?

“I’m thinking that what they’re doing is helping Honda have a chance in the championship, but throwing Chevy a bone – a big bone – with Indy, and letting them keep their advantage there.”

That didn’t seem an entirely reasonable argument. Honda-powered cars last year won the other two 500s, at Fontana and Pocono. If Chevy had an advantage it was restricted to qualifying, and more specifically, to Penske-Chevrolets, which suggests team performance, not manufacturer’s, was the decisive factor there.

But said engineer’s next comment – “I think you’re going to see a two-tier Indy 500 again” – has been echoed many times since the off-season.

Edwards didn’t necessarily agree with that, but nor did he rule it out. Asked if he expected Honda to be at a deficit to Chevrolet this month, he said: “I always expect to be at a deficit; that prevents complacency!

“But at the safety test [at IMS in April] and yesterday, I’d say Chevy were running way below what we know they can run. I’m basing that on where they ran here last year, given the lack of changes to the superspeedway kits."

Marco Andretti's comments yesterday echoed Edwards' sentiments: "As a team, because of weather, we kind of accelerated our program and moved some things forward that we had planned for the end of the week. I think that's why we look pretty stout right now.

"By Fast Friday you'll see things where they really pan out across the field."

Edwards agreed, adding: “Until we really see what Chevy are capable of doing, we’re always going to be concerned of the unknown.”

Yet it is the unknowns – the variables of weather and track conditions, the possibilities of late yellows and jumbled orders – that may provide Honda’s greatest chance of winning the 100^th Running of the Indy 500. 

And the accelerated learning curve imposed by the weather conditions over the next few days should help reveal sooner whether Honda has provided its teams with knives or semi automatics for the Memorial Day Weekend gunfight.