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How Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia can win the 2024 MotoGP title in Barcelona GP

The MotoGP title fight is set to be decided in Sunday’s showdown in Barcelona. Here’s how the two contenders can be crowned champion in the finale

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team, Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing

Pramac rider Jorge Martin goes into the Barcelona Grand Prix with a reduced - but still substantial - 19-point lead over factory Ducati rival Francesco Bagnaia.

What was a 24-point lead was trimmed down to just 19 by Bagnaia following his impressive performance in the sprint race on Saturday, in which he converted pole position into a seventh half-distance race victory of 2024.

The Italian was aided by his team-mate Enea Bastianini, who snatched second place from Martin with a brilliant move at Turn 5 on the final lap. It made a difference of two points to Martin’s tally, which could play a big role in Sunday’s finale.

As with every grand prix, 25 points are on offer in the Barcelona GP, meaning Martin is still the favourite to lift the championship trophy in his last race with Pramac and Ducati.

The Spaniard only needs to finish inside the top nine on Sunday to be crowned champion, irrespective of how Bagnaia fares in the race.

If Bagnaia fails to score an 11th win of 2024 in Barcelona, Martin can clinch the title by finishing as low as 14th place.

If both Martin and Bagnaia end up level on points on Sunday, which is possible if Bagnaia wins and Martin finishes 10th, then the title will go to the factory Ducati rider on countback (he would have 11 wins to Martin’s three). 

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team, Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team, Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

How Jorge Martin can win the 2024 MotoGP title in Barcelona GP

Martin
Bagnaia
If Martin wins
Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes second
Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes third
Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes fourth
Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes fifth
Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes sixth
Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes seventh
Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes eighth
Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes ninth
Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes 10th
Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 11th
Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 12th
Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 13th
Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 14th
Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 15th
Bagnaia must finish third or lower
If Martin finishes outside of the points
Bagnaia must finish third or lower

How Francesco Bagnaia can win the 2024 MotoGP title in Barcelona GP

The odds are against Bagnaia clinching a third successive premier class title in 2024. Bagnaia must finish inside the top two in order to overcome a 19-point deficit to Martin in the title fight.
Bagnaia
Martin
If Bagnaia wins
Martin must finish lower 10th or lower
If Bagnaia finishes second
Martin must finish 15th or lower
If Bagnaia finishes third or lower
He can’t be crowned champion
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