How Marc Marquez can seal the 2025 MotoGP crown at the Japanese GP

Marc Marquez has the opportunity to confirm himself as 2025 MotoGP world champion at the next race. Here is what he will need to do to be crowned in Japan

The Japanese Grand Prix at Motegi in two weeks will represent Marc Marquez’s first opportunity to seal the 2025 MotoGP world championship.

The Spaniard’s title has looked inevitable since the beginning of the season, but only now can he mathematically put the matter beyond doubt.

Should the factory Ducati rider confirm the championship in Japan, he would take the crown with five race weekends still remaining in the 22-round season.

To do so he would need to emerge from the Japanese weekend with a lead of 185 points heading to the following round in Indonesia. After his victory in the San Marino Grand Prix last weekend, he will fly east with a lead of 182 points over his brother Alex.

The bigger picture, then, is simple: Marc needs to stretch his advantage over Alex by three points at Motegi.

The mathematics are such that Marc won’t be able to win the title before Sunday. What exactly he needs to do on that day will depend on the outcome of the Saturday sprint – but it’s certain that he will get his shot at closing the deal in the grand prix.

Even if Marc doesn’t score at all on the Saturday, while Alex wins, that would reduce the gap to 170 points. But the 25 points available in the GP would still make the 185-point lead – and the title – a distinct possibility for Marc.

Alex Marquez, Gresini Racing, Marc Marquez, Ducati Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

Looking at a scenario in which Marc wins the sprint and Alex finishes second, the older brother will go into Sunday with exactly the advantage he needs at the end of it: 185 points. All he would then need to do is finish ahead of Alex in the grand prix - or that they both fail to score any points.

A reversed result on Saturday would mean a gap of 179 points heading into the grand prix. In that case, Alex could keep the title race open by finishing second or better on the Sunday.

Should Marc seal the championship in Japan, it would have special significance given the six MotoGP titles he won with local manufacturer Honda. Marquez switched to Italy’s Ducati in 2024, when he laid the foundation for this year’s dominant campaign.