Analysis: Who needs what weather in MotoGP's Argentina race

The 2018 edition of the Argentine motorcycle Grand Prix has been a classic mixed-weather weekend so far, with ever-changing track conditions preventing riders from properly preparing for the race, wet or dry.

The only proper dry session so far has been FP1 which, at Termas de Rio Hondo, is typically irrelevant due to the track - which isn't used a lot during the year - being in need of cleaning.

Light rain made the track damp for the Friday afternoon practice, and riders were resigned to riding on wet tyres throughout the entire Saturday, with the notable exception of Jack Miller’s pole position run in qualifying.

Naturally, the weather will play a crucial part in the final result of the race as well, especially as different riders were strong in different conditions.

Marc Marquez, Repsol Honda Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / LAT Images

The most obvious point everyone who followed the practices could take away was Marc Marquez being class of the field in rainy conditions.

The reigning champion topped the slippery FP2, was fastest in FP3 by six tenths, and was in a league of his own in the even-wetter FP4.

Not only did his 1m49.358s effort put him fastest by more than a second in that session, but he had four more sub-1m50s laps - with the rest of the field managing no better than 1m50.5s.

In qualifying, when it really counted, he failed to assert similar dominance, but it wasn’t really wet at that point - as, in fact, only a handful of corners were not dry.

As a result, looking at such a dominance, any of his rivals aiming to win on Sunday should logically not want it to rain.

Yet there are a few riders who look more competitive in those conditions and will likely come out with a better result, even if Marquez checks out at the front.

Johann Zarco is one of them, the Frenchman admitting in the post-qualifying press conference that he is more likely to fight for the podium if it’s wet.

Zarco had the most laps in the sub-1m51s region, which is something only a few riders were capable of, and he also had the most consistent run of all in FP3.

Jorge Lorenzo was another rider to show impressive long-run performance in the Saturday practices, even if both Andrea Dovizioso and Danilo Petrucci managed better single-lap times.

His lowly grid position of 14th is another reason why Lorenzo would benefit from the wet.

Jack Miller, Pramac Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / LAT Images

Needless to say, Jack Miller’s best chance of converting his pole position into a win or a podium would come in the rain, although the Australian somewhat surprisingly said that he wants it to be dry on Sunday.

"I'm definitely not hoping for conditions like today," he said.

"It could be raining in Turn 1 and then two laps later raining down in Turn 4, it's not nice to ride in conditions like that.

"I'd like some dry track time. 25 laps around here in the wet is not going to be fun".

The Aprilia riders could also spring a surprise in the wet – Scott Redding was another strong performer in FP4, while Aleix Espargaro mastered the conditions in qualifying, beating both factory Ducatis in Q1 and leading Q2 in the early stages as well.

Marquez’s fellow Honda riders Dani Pedrosa and Cal Crutchlow, while unable to match the reigning champion, were also on par with anyone else.

No wonder Crutchlow was left raging after only qualifying 10th, as the position was more down to his late gamble on slicks and eventual return to wets, which left him with no time to do a proper lap late on.

Pedrosa led Honda’s efforts in qualifying in second, and is the one Marquez considers as his main rival if it’s wet.

Dani Pedrosa, Repsol Honda Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / LAT Images

In the dry, Honda is again best-placed to seal the win but Marquez doesn’t have the same obvious advantage, if any, in those conditions.

He is definitely among the main candidates as he had very solid pace in FP1 and was likely only outpaced by Pedrosa and Crutchlow because he didn’t put on new tyres in the end.

When he did during the final, dry minutes of FP2, he was comfortably fastest with only Crutchlow coming anywhere near his time.

While factory Yamaha duo Maverick Vinales and Valentino Rossi look far from repeating the 1-2 they achieved at the track last year, they were decent on Friday.

However, the main reason why they would want a dry race is their poor performance in mixed conditions – they couldn’t match Zarco, the Hondas or even the Ducatis they had enjoyed an edge over on Friday.

Rossi insists his pace is good when it’s fully wet and it’s the drying conditions of the qualifying when he suffers.

"For me, on the full dry, we are not so bad, my pace is quite good.

"Also on the full wet I expect to be quite fast. But in this occasion, in this condition, half and half, we suffer a lot, so we have to hope that tomorrow will be full dry or full wet.”

Rossi was indeed slightly better than Vinales in FP4, but the Italian will probably still not be in victory contention, or be the top Yamaha for that matter, if it rains.

As for Qatar winner Dovizioso, the Argentine Grand Prix will likely be damage limitation.

The Italian had a disastrous Friday, ending FP2 dead last, and the rainy Saturday means he hasn’t had a chance to improve in dry conditions.

Suitably, Dovizioso claims he wants a wet race and reckons he can fight for the podium in mixed conditions - and maybe more if it’s properly pouring.