Five things to look out for in Michigan Sprint Cup on Sunday

1. Going for the season sweep

Ahead of this June's FireKeepers Casino 400, this tipster column was overly cautious of Joey Logano's chances for what would then be his season's first win. Sure, he'd won at Michigan before, but only the one time – and he hadn't had the best start to the 2016 season.

On Toyota's side, Matt Kenseth had dominated the most recent Michigan race. On Chevy's side, Kevin Harvick was running well up the order week-in, week-out, albeit only having the Phoenix win to show for it.

But while Martin Truex's dominance at Charlotte was not explainable by past records, the numbers, in hindsight, are definitely there for Logano. All it takes is just crossing out the Gibbs years.

Michigan is a very unremarkable track for #20 Gibbs driver Joey Logano. He's led no laps there, never qualified higher than eighth, never finished higher than seventh.

Logano's Gibbs years were not on the level we're used to seeing from him these days, sure, but even among other tracks, Michigan was distinctly below average for the #20 in 2009-2012.

For the #22 Penske Ford driver Joey Logano, however, Michigan is the happiest hunting ground – seven top-10s from seven, two wins from pole and laps led in all but one start. Even if you write off the 138 laps he led in June, Logano's still been up front at Michigan more than anyone else since 2013.

Ahead of this weekend's race, there's still the stat nobody's won both Michigan Cup events in a given year since Bobby Labonte back in 1995.

But with NASCAR bringing the low-downforce package again and Penske in fine form, there's probably a pretty good chance that statistic won't stand come checkered flag.

2. Local favorite

A native of Rochester Hills, Michigan, Brad Keselowski has made it no secret that he desperately wants to win at MIS.

And, ahead of this weekend's race, he'll again have reason to be optimistic that the milestone home victory is within reach.

Despite the lack of wins, Keselowski has the highest points tally of anyone in the Cup from the last 10 Michigan races, comfortably heading top MIS performers Harvick, Logano and Kenseth.

Top scorers in past 10 races at Michigan

The #2 team finished second once, third two times, and had a reasonably good shot at victory in August 2013 on a fuel gamble, albeit one crew chief Paul Wolfe ultimately had to abandon.

But the solid results mask the fact that Keselowski's runs at MIS have been more good than great. He's been thereabouts but not necessarily there.

Keselowski has not led more than 17 laps – 8.5 percent of the scheduled distance – in a given Cup race at Michigan,

That's not a deal-breaker – Kurt Busch needed only six laps to win the rain-shortened June race last year – but it is certainly an indicator that Keselowski simply hasn't been class of the field at MIS yet.

Perhaps that will change this weekend, as, should Logano's form falter, Keselowski should certainly be among those vying to take the top spot from the #22.

And even if the #2 is not quite up there, Wolfe and team are very good at playing the odds late on – and will likely throw all caution to the wind to try and get Keselowski the win that he seems to want most.

3. Patchy form

For a team that's been as strong in 2016 as JGR has, this year's June race in Michigan really was an unmitigated disaster – the organization's only race in the season where it didn't get a car into the top five and didn't manage to lead any laps (Truex did lead 10 for Furniture Row, but likewise didn't get a great finish).

That was in complete contrast to last year's August race, where, with the high-downforce package, Kenseth dominated, while his teammates placed P5, P6 and P11.

But whether that's a quirk of the package is hard to tell, because, in the years before, this is basically how JGR raced at Michigan.

The organisation had swept MIS in 2011 with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, but none of its cars would even get a top-10 result the year after.

In terms of average finish, JGR cars have, despite the three wins, racked up a 19.3 at MIS since 2011. On that metric, it's been its third-worst track (only just better than Talladega and Sonoma) and, in that same data period, Hendrick cars recorded a 16.1 at Michigan, Stewart-Haas - a 14.3, Penske – a 9.8.

That doesn't, of course, rule JGR out of contention this time around, as all of its drivers have won at MIS before – Kenseth and Edwards having especially starred there in their Roush days.

But if the team is slightly off the pace again, it has to be worried about its drivers getting caught up in the expected low-downforce chaos.

4. Running out of races

The clock is ticking for Kyle Larson's Chase hopes and the odds seem to be falling with each race.

There's little doubt that the #42 Ganassi team is, at the moment, quick enough for the play-offs – and if the regular season had another 20 races in it, Larson would probably make it. But it doesn't, and that patchy early-season run is taking its toll.

Of the tracks remaining, Michigan is the only one he's had a Cup top-five at, having finished third behind Logano and Chase Elliott earlier this year.

Since counting on Chris Buescher dropping back out of the top 30 is probably not an option, Larson is 39 points off where he would want to be. He's also been passed by fellow Chase outsiders Trevor Bayne and Kasey Kahne, but Larson has been much more of a presence out front.

So, if JGR runs as it did in June and if Penske finds trouble, Larson could be in a position to benefit. This isn't his only chance to make it – 39 points isn't an unassailable deficit – but it might just be his best.

5. High hopes for Elliott

Michigan International Speedway has not been the best of tracks for Jimmie Johnson, despite a relatively recent first win for the #48 driver.

It's been a decent track for Kahne, but not so much with Hendrick. It's been a good track for Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon – but they're not racing this weekend.

 On a very tiny sample size, it's been a great track for Elliott. And it needs to be a great track for him again.

Elliott put up a legitimate challenge for victory at Michigan in June, in what was, by rating, his second-best performance of the season – and the results have gone spectacularly downhill from there.

But another good MIS run should make him a virtual lock-in for the Chase. And a great MIS run could breathe new life into his HMS team's massively uneven season.

Driver rating statistics at Michigan