Handicapping the bottom feeders at Dover

Certainly, the Monster Mile is one of the most challenging venues to stage a comeback, particularly when peril awaits at every turn.

Who stands the best shot of advancing to Round 2 after Sunday’s Apache Warrior 400?

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. — Stenhouse sits 105-points behind series leader Martin Truex Jr., despite hitting the wall in the first two races of the playoffs. Still, he’s found a way to recover, finish 25th at Chicagoland and 15th at Loudon and is currently above the cutline, thanks to a tiebreaker he earned by winning twice in the regular season. The No. 17 Roush-Fenway Racing team cannot afford any mistakes at Dover, where Stenhouse crashed in June and finished 39th. Stenhouse’s performance at Dover has been less than noteworthy. In 10 starts, he has just one top-10 result — an eighth-place finish in this race two years ago. If Stenhouse survives on Sunday, his chances are good to advance to Round 3 with Talladega coming up. Stenhouse won the last two restrictor plate races.

Austin Dillon — Dillon is tied with Stenhouse in points. However, Stenhouse has 10-playoff points with two wins for the season. With three different crew chiefs this season, Dillon has been streaky. But he’s scored three of this top fives this season under the direction of crew chief Justin Alexander. Of the five drivers, Dillon’s average finish of 22.6 at Dover — which ranks last. Like Stenhouse, he has just one top-10 finish at the Monster Mile — an eighth-place result in this race last year — which advanced Dillon to Round 2. He finished a respectable 13th in the spring. If optimism counts for anything, give Dillon the nod. He’s excited about going into battle at Dover.

Ryan Newman — Newman is currently one point behind Stenhouse and Dillon with five playoff points in the kitty. If he and the other RCR cars are lacking for anything now, it’s speed — and that was apparent with his 23rd-place finish at Chicagoland. While Newman finished 13th at Loudon, it wasn’t enough of a recovery to make a dent in the standings. Of the five drivers, Newman holds the most wins at Dover with three. However, he scored all of the victories in his first six starts. The last win? 2004. Still, Newman finished fourth in June — the only driver among the cellar dwellers to post a top-10 result.

Kurt Busch — Busch had a mysterious vibration at Chicagoland compounded by a speeding penalty that took a top-five car out of contention in Race 1 of the playoffs. But it’s likely any hope to advance to the second round went up in smoke when he blindly sailed into his teammate Kevin Harvick last Sunday at Loudon and finished 39th. He’s currently 17-points outside of 12th-place. Busch desperately needs the three drivers ahead of him to have issues at Dover. Alternatively, he can find some way to win. Since his 2011 victory at this track, Busch’s only top-five finish came in last June’s race.

Kasey Kahne — After the rear suspension failure on Kahne’s car at Loudon, his only path to redemption will stem from a Hail Mary-type move from crew chief Darian Grubb. Let’s face it, no one expected the No. 5 team to make it into the playoffs — including Hendrick Motorsports. Realistically, Kahne (and Kurt Busch) have to aim for max stage points or the win to have any shot of moving on. Kahne has never won at Dover, but two of his three top-five finishes there came in his last five starts at the track.