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Special feature

NASCAR Roundtable: Is Stenhouse a title contender?

Has Ricky Stenhouse Jr. become a serious contender for the 2017 NASCAR Cup title and can Dale Earnhardt Jr. make the playoffs? These are some of the questions covered this week.

Race winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing Ford

Race winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing Ford

Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Race winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing Ford
Race winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing Ford
Race winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing Ford
Race winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing Ford
Race winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing Ford
Paul Menard, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, Michael McDowell, Leavine Family Racing Chevrolet, Brad Keselowski, Team Penske Ford, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Dale Earnhardt Jr., Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Dale Earnhardt Jr., Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet front row with Rick, Linda Hendrick
Dale Earnhardt Jr., Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Race winner William Byron, JR Motorsports Chevrolet
Race winner William Byron, JR Motorsports Chevrolet
Race winner William Byron, JR Motorsports Chevrolet
Race winner William Byron, JR Motorsports Chevrolet
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Matt Kenseth, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Daniel Suárez, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Race winner Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Victory lane: race winner Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota and Joey Logano, Team Penske Ford
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

With two wins now, do you consider Ricky Stenhouse Jr. a viable candidate to win the series championship? Or does he need to show more than restrictor-plate race wins?

Jim: I think the momentum and confidence Stenhouse and his team have accumulated in recent months will carry into the playoffs, where he will likely be one of the higher seeds thanks to his victories. To have a chance to advance in the playoffs - or even with the title - the No. 17 team will need to continue to show improvement on the intermediate tracks, which dominate the late-season schedule.

Lee: Stenhouse is having by far the best year of his career. He’s already matched his career-high top-five finishes, surpassed his top-10s and laps led. His average finish of 15.5 is also better than his first five seasons. By scoring his first win in May, the No. 17 Roush Fenway Racing team has had the last two months to prepare for the Playoffs. If Stenhouse can survive the first round — Chicago, Loudon and Dover — Talladega is waiting for him in the next round. He certainly has a clear path to the third round. Stenhouse has never qualified for the playoffs. His lack of experience could play against him. However, having Brian Pattie in his corner is a bonus.

Nick: Stenhouse is enjoying the best year of his young career, but I think it's reaching to call him a title contender. They need to show me more on on the 1.5 milers, having yet to score a top ten finish on those kinds of tracks this year. Yes, he has two wins, but they are both at plate tracks and there's only one of those in the ten-race playoffs.

Tim: While they have clinched a playoff spot, I still think the team will need to perform better on 1.5-mile tracks to be considered a serious contender for the title. One thing is for sure, wins bring confidence and a new attitude to a race team and they’re hot and on a roll right now for sure.

We're less than 10 races away from the cut-off to determine the playoff field for 2017. How badly did Dale Jr.'s Daytona troubles hurt his chances to make the cut? And do you you think it's time to face the fact that he may not advance into the playoffs?

Jim: This season has been way too unpredictable to write off anyone at this point and the addition of stages has created even more opportunities for strategy to play into the outcome of wins (i.e. fuel mileage). Will it be difficult for Earnhardt to win? Sure. Is it out of the question? Absolutely not. There are plenty of tracks upcoming on which Earnhardt has been successful. The biggest problem he may face is if there are multiple winners in the coming months - he could win and still not get in.

Lee: Of the nine remaining tracks before the Playoffs, Earnhardt’s best opportunities lie at Michigan, Bristol and Richmond. He has multiple wins at Michigan and Richmond. He’s won at Bristol and enjoys his third-best average finish of 13.3. But even if Earnhardt does win a race between now and September, the reality is the No. 88 team is not a championship contender.

Nick: Not where there's still nine races to go in the regular season. As lee said, there are a handful of tracks that he can certainly have success on and with how unpredictable things have been, I wouldn't discount anyone running at a semi-competitive level.

Tim: I honestly thought Daytona would have been his best and likely, only option to get a win and make the playoffs. However, I admired how hard Dale Jr. and the team worked to get back on the lead lap after their early race troubles at Daytona. He runs well at Michigan and with the new tire and package at Indy anything can happen and I still think he has a chance.

William Byron has won two races in a row now in the NXS. Who do you think is the next first-time winner in the NXS?

Jim: I still expect Daniel Hemric to find his way to Victory Lane this season. He and his Richard Childress Racing team have been very inconsistent during his rookie season, but when they are good, they are very good. The upcoming standalone races offer Hemric a good opportunity win his way into the playoffs.

Lee: I’ve been wrong about picking the next first-time winner in Cup three times now, but here goes. Among full-timers, I like Daniel Hemric. I think he’s shown tremendous growth in his short time at Richard Childress Racing. However, it would not surprise me in the least if in one of Christopher Bell’s next seven Xfinity starts he battles his way to Victory Lane. He’s just that good.   

Nick: He's only running a partial schedule, but I feel Christopher Bell will get to Victory Lane very soon. Beyond him, keep an eye on Daniel Hemric and Brennan Poole.

Tim: I must agree with my colleagues Lee and Jim, I feel Daniel Hemric could be the next surprise winner. I know he’s struggled at times but he’s also ran very well at times and the kid can flat out drive anything.

Of the four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers in the Cup Series. Who do you think will get a win before Richmond in September and at the other end of the spectrum, who will be in the outside looking in? 

Jim: Kyle Busch continues to be the JGR driver who appears most ready to pick up a win. He has had several legitimate opportunities already - far more than his three other teammates. At this point, I believe Busch will be the only JGR driver to pick up a win before the playoffs, but if we roll into the cut-off race at Richmond with Hamlin needing a victory on his home track, all bets are off.

Lee: For the second time in three weeks, I’m picking Kyle Busch to win. It’s hard to bet against him — or Brad Keselowski — on Saturday night at Kentucky. Matt Kenseth is the only other Gibbs driver with at Kentucky win, but the No. 20 team has been snake bit this season. Daniel Suarez has made tremendous gains, but not quick enough to move past the series veterans. Honestly, I would not be surprised if only two Gibbs drivers make the playoffs. Busch by winning, Hamlin — by winning Richmond — or on points.

Nick: Kyle Busch will win before Richmond and he may be the only one of the four to do so. However, I don't think he'll be alone in the playoffs. Denny Hamlin will also make the cut, bit I think both Matt Kenseth and Daniel Suarez will be on the outside-looking in.

Tim: I keep thinking Kyle Busch will get a win soon and it could some this weekend. He’s already won twice at Kentucky Speedway in the six Cup races held at the track.

It seems Brad Keselowski (three wins )and Kyle Busch (two wins) have Kentucky Speedway figured out. While Keselowski has already qualified for the playoffs this year, would you say this is a must-win for Busch on Saturday night?

Jim: With Busch being third in the series standings, the only reason he would be in a "must-win" situation would be for his own piece of mind. The No. 18 team has shown it is capable of winning, it needs only to close the deal one weekend and all will be forgotten.

Lee: No. Busch is third in the standings. He’s won at eight of the next nine racetracks leading into the Chase. The No. 18 squad is the class of the field at JGR. He’s a lock for the playoffs.

Nick: It's not a must-win, but it has to be eating away at both him and JGR not to have a win yet. He'll be in the playoffs and I will be utterly shocked if he doesn't win before then. But this has been an unpredictable season...

Tim: Not a must-win but as frustrated as he’s been at the end of other races, I think a win would do wonders for Busch to just make him feel better and give the entire team a shot in the arm as we get closer to the playoffs.

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