Stat analysis: Will Hendrick turn season around at Pocono?
By its own lofty standards, Hendrick Motorsports has had a subdued start to the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup season - but Pocono should present a great chance for the organization to turn things around.
Dale Earnhardt Jr., Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet takes the win
Getty Images
The 2016 Coca-Cola 600 was a fitting end to the first half of the ongoing NASCAR Sprint Cup regular season – not in quality of show, but certainly in outcome – in that it's all but guaranteed the presence of five Joe Gibbs alliance cars in the Chase.
It was also an eerily appropriate run for the four Hendrick Motorsport machines – a third place for flagship driver Jimmie Johnson, yet another top 10 for Chase Elliott, an underwhelming but nonetheless important points day for Dale Earnhardt Jr. and continued disaster for Kasey Kahne.
The start of the post-Gordon era, as a whole, has not been so kind to the Hendrick team, even disregarding the Gibbs run of form – after all, despite Chevy's eight-race winless streak, it's currently locking out the top three in the standings, except the leading two of those three are Stewart-Haas cars.
That, of course, doesn't really matter under the current format as long as your cars are comfortably making the Chase, but most of the Hendrick contingent, as it stands, is nowhere near “comfortable”.
Stats-wise, it's been a bit of a depressing start, with Hendrick's four cars posting, in total, their lowest percentage of possible points scored in the first 13 races of a season over the last 10 years.
Hendrick Motorsports' first 13 races of the season (since 2006)
Year | Drivers | Wins | Top 5 | Top 10 | Pts. | Pts. % |
2006 | Kyle Busch, Gordon, Vickers, Johnson | 3 | 16 | 25 | 6382 | 70.1 |
2007 | Kyle Busch, Gordon, Mears, Johnson | 9 | 21 | 28 | 6581 | 71.8 |
2008 | Mears, Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt | 1 | 15 | 23 | 6262 | 68.3 |
2009 | Martin, Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt | 5 | 16 | 26 | 6515 | 71.1 |
2010 | Martin, Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt | 3 | 16 | 22 | 6582 | 71.8 |
2011 | Martin, Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt | 2 | 12 | 23 | 1610 | 71.2 |
2012 | Kahne, Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt | 3 | 15 | 29 | 1605 | 71.0 |
2013 | Kahne, Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt | 3 | 17 | 26 | 1624 | 71.8 |
2014 | Kahne, Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt | 4 | 17 | 29 | 1675 | 74.0 |
2015 | Kahne, Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt | 5 | 19 | 30 | 1637 | 72.4 |
2016 | Kahne, Elliott, Johnson, Earnhardt | 2 | 16 | 25 | 1414 | 67.1 |
The rest of the numbers aren't that bad, helped out by two major factors: that Johnson still delivers, and that Chase Elliott has been a ridiculously reliable pair of hands in his rookie season, his nine top 10s a team-best at this point and his haul no less impressive than the efforts of his predecessor.
As such, Hendrick's stats are clearly not suffering from a rookie effect in 2016, but rather just a general shortage of points. For Dale Jr., that is partly explained by costly crashes at Daytona and Talladega, where he could usually expect a big points haul.
But Dale Jr. is still well within the Chase cut-off – Kahne, meanwhile, is not even particularly close, which has to be worrying for a team that was eighth at this point last year and would go on to miss the 2015 playoffs.
Why mention that now? Well, NASCAR's current format means entire seasons can be turned around in one race weekend and, as far as the Hendrick quartet should be concerned, they are unlikely to have much better tracks to do that at than Pocono.
Pocono prowess
Between August 2012 and August 2014, Hendrick cars won all five of NASCAR's Pocono races, with all four of the team's regular drivers going to Victory Lane (and Dale Jr. doing so twice).
That streak put the team's Pocono total up to 17, making it the team's fourth-best track in terms of win count, behind only Martinsville, Dover and Charlotte.
Well, this year, the Sprint Cup has already visited Martinsville, Dover and Charlotte, where the wins went to Kyle Busch (JGR), Matt Kenseth (JGR) and Truex (JGR alliance).
Recent track record suggests that Pocono should be a different story.
Top points-scorers in last 10 Pocono races
Pos. | Driver | Teams | Wins | Pts. |
1 | Jeff Gordon | Hendrick | 2 | 382 |
2 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | Hendrick | 2 | 371 |
3 | Jimmie Johnson | Hendrick | 1 | 356 |
4 | Brad Keselowski | Penske | 1 | 338 |
5 | Ryan Newman | Stewart-Haas, Childress | 0 | 325 |
6 | Greg Biffle | Roush | 0 | 320 |
7 | Clint Bowyer | Childress, Waltrip | 0 | 318 |
8 | Joey Logano | Gibbs, Penske | 1 | 314 |
9 | Tony Stewart | Stewart-Haas | 0 | 311 |
10 | Kevin Harvick | Childress, Stewart-Haas | 0 | 308 |
Under the now-defunct 2011-2015 points system (46 for a win), the top three points-scorers for Pocono are all Hendrick Motorsports drivers – and the trio are in the clear by a rather hefty margin.
Meanwhile, none of the current Gibbs quartet are in the top 10, and, despite his dominant win last year, neither is Truex.
Of course, the points system rewards a good average finish more than anything, and it's probably not what Hendrick should be chasing this weekend – at the very least not for Kahne, who is absent from this table cause he's ended up in the bottom half of the running order in five of his 10 past Pocono appearances, despite the fact he definitely doesn't lack speed at the venue.
The opposition
All that said, there's no reason to fully discount Gibbs at Pocono (or at any other track, really), especially given that the most recent winner at the track is Kenseth.
But Kenseth's win was fuel mileage, the #20 driver saying after that race: “I never thought I'd ever win at Pocono.” And while another Gibbs driver Kyle Busch himself came close to a win, most of the race was controlled by Penske's Joey Logano.
And the Gibbs organisation does, in fact, have a track record of success at Pocono, with four wins for Denny Hamlin between 2006 and 2010 and a win for Joey Logano. However, Logano long as a different employer, and Hamlin's recent runs at Pocono have been patchy – as has been for the whole team.
Whether that'll affect Truex is, of course, is a different question entirely – his comfortable win in the June race at Pocono last year and the one-man show that was the Coca-Cola 600 are, admittedly, rather convincing arguments.
Major multi-car teams' stats in last 10 Pocono races
Team | Wins |
Top 5 % |
Top 10 % |
Median finish (Pocono) |
Median finish (Other tracks) |
Difference |
Ganassi | 0 | 5.0 | 35.0 | 13.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 |
Gibbs | 2 | 18.8 | 43.8 | 12.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 |
Roush | 0 | 9.4 | 28.1 | 16.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 |
Penske | 1 | 40.0 | 55.0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 |
Stewart-Haas | 0 | 33.3 | 46.7 | 11.5 | 16.0 | -4.5 |
Hendrick | 6 | 40.0 | 62.5 | 6.0 | 10.0 | -4.0 |
Childress | 0 | 3.0 | 18.2 | 16.0 | 15.0 | +1.0 |
Petty | 0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 20.5 | 19.0 | +1.5 |
Even aside from wins, there's a clear statistical indication that Hendrick cars have run better than anyone else at Pocono in the past few years – but what is also clear that the track has favored Stewart-Haas Racing and Penske.
For Stewart-Haas, the numbers are a bit surprising, given that its flagship driver Kevin Harvick is yet to conquer Pocono. But Harvick's been getting awfully close recently – he was 0.2s off in the second 2014 race, 1.3s off in the first 2015 race and was fighting for the lead in the most recent outing when his engine blew up.
As for Penske, the organisation has two proven Pocono winners in Logano and Keselowski, for both of who triumphs at the venue were clearly no fluke.
Sprint Cup active drivers' Pocono records (ranked by five-year finishing average):
Pos. | Driver | Overall |
Past 5 yrs | |||||||
Wins | T5 | T10 | Pole | Led | AvgStr | AvgFin | AvgStr | AvgFin | ||
1 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | 2 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 178 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 13.9 | 8.0 |
2 | Kyle Larson | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 14.2 | 9.0 |
3 | Jimmie Johnson | 3 | 11 | 19 | 3 | 738 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 9.4 |
4 | Brad Keselowski | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 143 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 13.8 | 11.2 |
5 | Kurt Busch | 2 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 506 | 10.3 | 15.1 | 5.6 | 11.4 |
6 | Ryan Newman | 1 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 184 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 13.7 | 11.8 |
7 | Clint Bowyer | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 91 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 15.5 | 12.2 |
8 | Greg Biffle | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 124 | 18.1 | 15.3 | 18.1 | 12.4 |
9 | Tony Stewart | 2 | 12 | 23 | 2 | 183 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 19.3 | 13.2 |
10 | Kevin Harvick | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 52 | 17.1 | 14.2 | 12.0 | 13.5 |
11 | Joey Logano | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 220 | 11.1 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 13.5 |
12 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 114 | 17.6 | 15.3 | 16.5 | 14.4 |
13 | Jamie McMurray | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 16.5 | 19.1 | 14.7 | 15.0 |
15 | Austin Dillon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 |
16 | Denny Hamlin | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 669 | 6.8 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 16.4 |
17 | Kyle Busch | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 82 | 12.4 | 18.4 | 10.3 | 16.6 |
18 | Matt Kenseth | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 60 | 18.1 | 15.2 | 16.6 | 17.1 |
20 | Carl Edwards | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 237 | 16.1 | 15.2 | 8.0 | 18.6 |
22 | Kasey Kahne | 2 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 219 | 10.4 | 18.7 | 12.5 | 21.6 |
New additions to the Chase field?
How high are the chances, then, that this weekend will produce a third first-time 2016 race winner in a row? Well, they're not low, not given the abundance of candidates with serious credentials.
It is entirely plausible that Hendrick's three winless drivers could challenge for victory – Earnhardt and Kahne have done so in the past and Elliott, despite having no previous Pocono starts in a NASCAR national series, did pick up his sole ARCA win at the venue.
Logano's an option (when is he not?) and, given Chip Ganassi Racing's above-average record at the track and Kyle Larson's recent speed, he can't be ruled out as well.
The best bet from a statistics standpoint, however, is two-time Pocono winner Kurt Busch.
Notable five-year driver rating averages, maximums and minimums at Pocono:
Driver | Pocono | Other tracks | Difference | Pocono Max. |
Pocono Min. |
Kurt Busch | 111.0 | 88.3 | +22.7 | 131.5 | 74.8 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 110.4 | 93.5 | +16.9 | 127.5 | 88.6 |
Jimmie Johnson | 108.2 | 103.2 | +5.1 | 148.1 | 72.5 |
Joey Logano | 99.8 | 91.2 | +8.6 | 133.7 | 72.9 |
Brad Keselowski | 97.6 | 97.1 | +0.4 | 143.3 | 60.6 |
Denny Hamlin | 95.2 | 91.6 | +3.6 | 118.6 | 38.3 |
Kyle Larson | 95.1 | 83.5 | +11.6 | 99.5 | 89.5 |
Kevin Harvick | 92.5 | 102.0 | -9.5 | 134 | 48.8 |
Ryan Newman | 91.8 | 83.4 | +8.3 | 112.6 | 68.3 |
Carl Edwards | 90.4 | 90.9 | -0.5 | 106.8 | 59.6 |
Kyle Busch | 89.4 | 101.2 | -11.8 | 127.1 | 43 |
Matt Kenseth | 89.2 | 101.0 | -11.8 | 119.2 | 52.6 |
Tony Stewart | 87.7 | 80.2 | +7.5 | 105.2 | 70.1 |
Martin Truex, Jr. | 87.3 | 88.3 | -1.0 | 147 | 62.3 |
Kasey Kahne | 87.1 | 90.7 | -3.6 | 146.7 | 23.7 |
Second in the standings, Kurt Busch doesn't exactly need a win the way Earnhardt and Kahne might, but he'd certainly want one – and this is a good, good track for him, despite the lack of recent wins.
His past-five years covered tenures with Penske, Phoenix, Furniture Row and Stewart-Haas and the driver rating is probably slightly flattered by the fact he was suspended for one of the Pocono races during his Phoenix tenure.
But even in his only Pocono outing with that team, Kurt Busch looked properly rapid – and he simply has to be among the favourites at the 'Tricky Triangle' every single time now that he's with Stewart-Haas.
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