Analysis

Formula 1

Liam Lawson’s fight to stay in F1 isn’t over: "Three good races aren’t enough"

Liam Lawson’s "lifelong dream" of becoming a Red Bull Racing driver didn’t last long when he was demoted after just two races. But, is there still a chance he could make his way back?

Oleg Karpov

Published: Aug 20, 2025, 12:10 PM

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Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team

"He's not being demoted — he's moving to Racing Bulls, which has a very competitive car, much easier to handle than the RB21," Helmut Marko told Motorsport.com in early spring, after Red Bull decided to replace Liam Lawson with Yuki Tsunoda in its main squad. Marko was adamant this was not the end of the road for the New Zealander.

"The change happened after a start that I’d say was rather unfortunate," he added, citing Lawson’s issues during pre-season testing in Bahrain and his struggles in the opening races. "The third practice session in Australia was cancelled, and that’s where the problems began. That naturally affected Liam’s confidence.

"It was a downward spiral that we needed to break in order to give Lawson a future in his career."

Last year was eventful for Lawson: from the moment he replaced Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull’s second team, he quickly became the leading candidate to succeed Sergio Perez — a move that materialised over the winter, despite Lawson’s modest F1 record at the time, consisting of fewer than a dozen grand prix weekends.

But a difficult start to 2025 prompted what Marko refused to call a "demotion". Within weeks, Lawson’s career had shifted in a very different direction, to the point where many questioned whether he would even finish the year with Racing Bulls. The looming presence of Red Bull’s rising star Arvid Lindblad, in his rookie F2 season, fuelled speculation he could be fast-tracked into F1 before the year was out. Lawson’s seat looked like the most obvious target, particularly as he failed to score points early on and struggled to keep pace with his new team-mate Isack Hadjar.

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team

Photo by: Peter Fox / Getty Images

In the same interview, Marko confirmed Tsunoda would definitely complete the season at Red Bull. And Hadjar — at least until Gabriel Bortoleto began scoring points for Sauber — was widely seen as the best of the 2025 rookie class.

But Lawson has since stabilised his season with a strong run of races over the summer. He may not have fully turned things around, but he has regained confidence — even if he never admitted losing it.

"He's done a great job, honestly," Racing Bulls team principal Alan Permane said at the Hungarian GP weekend. "Two races at Red Bull, obviously, were very tough for him. He won't thank me for saying this, but he definitely was a bit downbeat.

"He didn't have a spring in his step, and we've done what we can to help him there. To jump in our car straight away without having tested it was, of course, not easy. He's up against Isack who has been outstanding this year. First race for him was Japan and Isack was absolutely flying there. So, it's a tough introduction for him."

In his first five races with Racing Bulls, Lawson failed to reach Q3 or score points, while Hadjar made Q3 three times and scored in Japan and Saudi Arabia. That could be explained by Lawson needing time to adapt, but doubts about his future only grew louder. Crucially, though, he responded just in time with improved performances from Monaco onwards. He still qualified behind Hadjar, but was close enough on the grid to enable the team to execute a strategy that delivered strong points for both drivers — with Lawson playing a key role.

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images via Getty Images

Subsequent updates to the front suspension also helped Lawson feel more comfortable, and he scored in Austria, Belgium and Hungary. In Budapest he even finished ahead of Verstappen after executing a one-stop strategy with a 40-lap second stint.

"We've made some changes," Permane explained. "He's worked hard. Him and his engineering team have worked really, really hard. We had a bit of a breakthrough in Austria. We had a new front suspension for him, which they developed through the simulator, and he really liked it, was really enthusiastic about it, and it worked there.

"We saw in Spa again, he's performing. You could see after that race… Monaco was a decent race for him, but Austria, he had a spring back in his step."

Lawson himself may dispute Permane’s view of him being "downbeat", insisting his confidence never wavered.

"Look, everybody is going to have their own opinions and is going to make judgements when they see somebody," he said after the Hungarian GP. "So that's fine, but I know how I feel."

Even so, his body language has shifted markedly compared to the subdued figure in Red Bull overalls that we witnessed earlier this year.

Alan Permane, Racing Bulls team principal

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

"To be honest, nothing huge has changed, other than some small things in the car, and small things to me that have helped get me comfortable in the car," he insisted. "And I think that's been really since Austria that I've felt that comfortable in the car, but the speed's always been there since the start of the season, since we did the switch.

"We just had a lot of small things through that first part of the year, and the consistency wasn't there, and now it is, but also it's very tough to keep that, so we need to try and focus on keeping that."

Lawson’s case has also been strengthened by Tsunoda’s struggles since the swap. The Japanese driver has only finished in the top 10 twice, with a points drought stretching back to Monaco. Lawson, meanwhile, has the edge in qualifying, making Q3 four times compared to Tsunoda’s two, and more often than not starting ahead — despite Tsunoda having the faster car on paper.

That suggests Lawson’s early struggles were not purely driver-related. But what does that mean for his future?

"It's been so busy this year that I'm not really thinking about it," Lawson said when asked if he was targeting a Red Bull return. "I'm focused on having some good races, obviously we've had some recently, but three of them isn't enough over 12 races or however many it's been, so we need to do more of this, and then we'll see."

Timing is everything in F1, and Lawson enters the summer break with 20 points — just two shy of Hadjar’s tally. He may downplay its significance, but it at least silenced doubts about him being beyond repair. That gives him a platform to build on for the second half of the year, with several circuits ahead where he already has F1 experience.

Liam Lawson, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

"Yeah, I think it's obviously good to go to tracks that you've done in F1, and some tracks that I really enjoy as well coming up," he said in Hungary. "So yeah, I think the second half's going to be exciting, I'm looking forward to it, but I'm definitely also looking forward to a few weeks off."

Under Christian Horner, Red Bull never offered a second chance to drivers who failed in the main team — not even Pierre Gasly, who won a race and scored podiums with AlphaTauri, was recalled. But could that policy change now?

Red Bull is still far from solving its second-car problem. Tsunoda has yet to deliver the consistency needed to strengthen his claim for a longer stay. Insiders suggest that Laurent Mekies, who took charge in July, is prepared to give him more time — noting that car-spec differences with Verstappen have hurt his performances. In Spa and Hungary, Tsunoda showed glimpses of progress, including being within two tenths of Verstappen despite a Q1 exit. Still, all options remain open.

It would be premature to suggest Lawson is firmly back in contention for a Red Bull seat. But with limited alternatives and ongoing uncertainty, his improved form could not have come at a better time.

Whether or not Marko is right that the early "demotion" might become a blessing, Lawson has at least halted the slide — and given himself something to play for in the second half of 2025.

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