NASCAR Cup Homestead-Miami

How Bell's path to the Championship 4 may differ from others

In the Round of 8, it's all about punching your ticket to the title-decider with a race win, but that may not be necessary for at least one driver.

Nick DeGroot

Published: Oct 27, 2024, 3:46 PM

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Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, Rheem Toyota Camry

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Christopher Bell is the only Cup driver to make the Championship 4 in the first two seasons of the Next Gen era, and he is on the cusp of doing it for a third consecutive year. Despite his strong position, he only felt frustration after a dominant showing last weekend as he watched Joey Logano stretch the fuel and steal the win out from under him.

But the disappointing runner-up finish at Vegas still netted Bell a bucket of points -- enough to put him ahead of the seven title contenders still fighting over the three remaining spots in the final four. That's critically important as no matter what happens over the next two weeks, the driver with the most points (and no win in the Round of 8) will also have a clear pathway to Phoenix.

Bell's true battle isn't with the bottom four

He is 42 points above the cut-line, but the fight Bell really needs to pay attention to is the one to remain atop the points pile. Kyle Larson is just seven points behind him and William Byron is 25 points back. The top points-scorer is guaranteed one of those coveted four spots, no matter what. That fact certainly isn't lost on the quietly clever driver of the No. 20 Toyota.

“Yeah, I think that’s what we’re planning on (gaining max points)," said Bell during media availability at Homestead. "You know, that’s why you’re in the Round of 8, trying to transfer to the Championship 4. You’re never really safe. The three of us William [Byron], Kyle [Larson] and myself have kind of, the way that the cards fell, we’re kind of essentially point racing each other, and the guys below that are far enough below, they’re basically out of the points and essentially racing for wins.

"Certainly, we’ll know more once we get through Homestead on Sunday night, but, right now, we’re planning on there being three winners and the three of us – William, Kyle and myself – are racing for that last points spot. There's a good chance William, Kyle or myself could win this weekend and it could change. But + 42 (points) sounds great until you realize every time someone wins, that cutline shrinks more, more and more, or that gap to the cutline. You're never safe and it’s going to be a battle."

The lack of a safety net in this round makes it unique to the two that precede it where 'okay' runs are normally enough to skate through. But in this penultimate round, the entire dynamic changes and nothing short of a victory feels secure. Perhaps that's why Bell was unusually animated on the radio when he lost the Vegas race to Logano's fuel gamble.

Points vs. wins: A recent history

But is it really wise to prioritize points over race wins in this round? Taking a short walk back through recent history gives us some good insight into the answer.

Last year, Byron (+20 over nearest competition) was the driver who left Homestead with the most points of the non-winners. In 2022, it was Ross Chastain (+8 on nearest competition). Both drivers did end up making the Championship 4. However, it was a nail-biter for Byron who narrowly moved forward by a margin of just eight points. And Chastain? I think we all remember what he had to do, driving his car full-throttle into the wall and achieving what was once thought impossible in a daredevil move for the ages.

But the most interesting statistic here is that neither of those drivers went on to win the title while both of the NASCAR's most recent champions [Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano] won their way into the finale. In fact, that trend continues back before the introduction of the Next Gen car with Larson in 2021 and Chase Elliott in 2020.

The last champion to actually point their way into the finale was Kyle Busch five years ago. In fact, it's only happened three times in ten seasons with this current format. Bell is of the belief that winning in the Round of 8 -- specifically the opening race as Logano just did -- gives any driver a certain edge over the other contenders.

"The Phoenix car is a special car and if you’re in the final four, it deserves to have more time and effort put into it," explained Bell, who has only ever made the final four by winning Ro8 races. "So, winning that first race is huge and yeah, it’s an advantage. And I noticed that from winning Homestead last year, having that extra week to prepare."

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